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‘Headwinds are building’: Property values decline amid CGT, negative gearing changes

Property prices are dropping in major capital cities with deeper falls possible as tax changes kick in.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese struck a deal with the Greens last week to push through tax reform. AAP Image/Susie Dodds.

The federal government has secured significant changes to capital gains tax discounts and negative gearing. Economists are watching closely for the fall out in the property market.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

Property price slump

The index: Cotality home value index, June

When: Wednesday 1 July 2026

What to expect: In May, home values fell 0.1%. Economists are expecting to see a further slowdown in June for the housing market, with the daily index suggesting national home prices might finish the month down 0.3% for the capital cities.

Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are tipped to see growth but at a slowing pace. But Sydney is expected to lead the fall, with a 1.2% decline, and Melbourne is likely to be just behind at 0.9%.