Not even an unemployment lift will convince markets a cut is back on the cards
Joblessness is tipped to hit 4.3%, and the Reserve Bank's top officials will have a chance to send fresh signals to rate watchers.
Expectations for a November rate cut have fallen significantly. Still, the first key economic indicator — labour force figures — will be released this week, and Reserve Bank officials will have myriad opportunities to get their messaging out to the market.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Overseas Arrivals and Departures, August, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Tuesday 14 October 2025
The data: Building Activity, June, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 15 October 2025
The data: Labour Force, September, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Thursday 16 October 2025
What to expect: The Bloomberg consensus is for a 4.3% jobless rate, an extra 20,000 jobs and a 66.8% participation rate. Goldman Sachs is in line with these expectations.
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said in a note that a “good enough labour market result” would make it unlikely the RBA will cut in November, even should the September quarter CPI data come in “a little more benign” than expected. Still, she cautioned that while the odds of a cut are below 50%, they are “still a long way from zero”. Ellis expects a 4.3% jobless rate and a 15,000 increase in employment.
