RBA rates decision, cost-of-living scrutiny: the week ahead in macro
The critical August rates meeting will be the highlight of a busy week.
Michele Bullock is set to give the clearest steer in months on where the central bank board thinks inflation is heading this year with two significant appearances from the Reserve Bank governor and a major update to official forecasts.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
Rates decision
The decision: August interest rate meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia
When: Tuesday 6 August 2024
What to expect: The experts overwhelmingly think the RBA is going to keep rates on hold at 4.35% on Tuesday following last week’s better-than-feared inflation data for the June quarter. But there are a few questions that rate watchers will be seeking to answer by deciphering the post-meeting statement at 2.30pm and Bullock’s media conference held one hour later. Among them is whether the broad stance of the bank will change, including any significant softening of the language around the risks remaining evenly balanced and whether the board discusses a rate rise as a possible scenario.
The board meets again in September, but a significant number of economists expect the first cut to come in February. The markets are currently fully pricing in a cut from December. Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank both have a cut pencilled in for November, though CBA analysts think the RBA may well deliver a "hawkish" message this week.
