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The Israel-Hamas conflict adds a dangerous new variable to unstable markets

The shocking attack on Israel threatens escalating military retaliation with consequences reverberating far beyond the Middle East.

Fire and smoke rise following an Israeli airstrike, in Gaza City on Sunday. AP/Fatima Shbair.

The shocking attack on Israel by the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas threatens escalating retaliation and broader conflict with potential consequences reverberating far beyond the Middle East.

Much of the initial analysis on the conflict has centred on the apparent dereliction of Israeli intelligence that failed to foresee and prevent the brazen assault that began Saturday morning. That element of surprise enabled Hamas militants, backed by thousands of rockets, to breach Israel security lines and rampage through nearby towns and villages, killing hundreds and taking dozens of hostages back into Gaza.

The high numbers of casualties and captives have already served to diminish Israel’s reputation for having for one of the world’s most powerful military and intelligence establishments. But any internal recriminations will have to wait.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already warned his citizens in no uncertain terms to brace for a long and difficult full-scale war. “We are at war,” he said in a televised address, declaring a mass mobilisation of troops and reservists. “Not an operation, not some back and forth, but at war.”