'They never expected this': Strong jobs market casts doubt on early election
The resilient jobs market has complicated Albanese’s election timing, with fading chances of both a rate cut and an early election in February or March.
New jobs data and the timing of Anthony Albanese’s ministerial reshuffle have effectively ruled out a federal election in February or March, as Labor strategists await the Reserve Bank’s next move.
A strong labour market is usually good news for the government of the day. However, the freshly revealed 4% unemployment rate for December — a slight rise from November’s 3.9% — has posed a fresh challenge for Albanese, who has yet to announce the timing of the federal election.
While the headlining jobless rate itself did not surprise forecasters, there was significant strength in terms of job creation. The market had anticipated 15,000 new positions for December, but the actual number was 56,300. Economists have routinely got it wrong on the underlying strength of the jobs market in recent years, and monthly data can be volatile.
Economic experts are split on what the latest figures mean for the Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decision. Earlier excitement for a February rate cut — which is still a possibility — has been tempered by the labour force figures.
