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Forward Guidance

This week will make or break the case for an August rate cut

CPI data this week will determine if an RBA rate cut is finally back on the table. Meanwhile, the US Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged despite pressure from the White House.

Jennifer Duke
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Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock pointed to the quarterly CPI, alongside unemployment data, as the critical information needed for the board to determine its next move. AAP Image/Jane Dempster.

Economists will sharpen their predictions this week for the Reserve Bank of Australia's next mover with inflation data the last piece of the puzzle before the central bank meets to decide rates on August 12.

Its US counterpart, the Federal Reserve, also meets this week with consensus expectations it will leave its key policy rate on hold, despite pressure on Jerome Powell from the White House.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

New numbers

The data: Job mobility, February 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics

When: Tuesday 29 July 2025

More to watch: Data from the ABS into participation, job search and mobility, potential workers, and underemployed workers will also be released on Tuesday.