Unemployment data, central bank speeches and spending data: the week ahead in macro
The Reserve Bank will publish a new set of forecasts in a matter of weeks. Data this week will show whether it needs to consider changing one of its critical predictions — the unemployment rate.
The most critical data point of the week will be unemployment and the strength in the labour market, with only a few weeks to go until the Reserve Bank meets for its second-to-last time in 2024. With just one of the big four banks, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, still expecting a rate cut before the end of the year, this will be a key component to sharpening up those forecasts.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Labour force, September, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Thursday 17 October 2024
What to expect: August’s data showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% in seasonally adjusted terms. The Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts tip unemployment to hit 4.3% in December before peaking at 4.4% in June 2025 (and remaining at this level for some time).
In September, CBA economists are tipping joblessness to have hit 4.3% with an extra 15,000 jobs created. Participation rate is likely to have remained at highs of 67.1%. AMP expects a 4.3% unemployment rate but with jobs growth slowing to 20,000.
