CPI growth slows to 3.4% in 12 months to November
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The news: The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.4% in the 12 months to November 2025, lower than the consensus expectations for a 3.7% lift and slower than the year to October.
Trimmed mean inflation for the 12 months to November came in at 3.2%, down from 3.3% in the 12 months to October.
The numbers: The CPI increase was lower than the 3.8% registered in the 12 months to October. It marks the second release of the complete monthly CPI measure.
Annual inflation was predominantly driven by housing (+5.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.3%) and transport (+2.7%).
Housing inflation was driven by a jump in electricity costs (+19.7%), although this was smaller than the October 37.1% surge in electricity costs which reflects unwinding electricity rebate distortions.
On a month-to-month basis CPI was flat in original terms and rose 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.
The context: While recent headline inflation spikes have partially been due to temporary factors, such as the timing of electricity subsidies expiring, there has been debate among economists on whether other inflationary pressures could be more persistent.
As such, views have been split on where rates are headed this year. Commonwealth Bank and NAB economists believe it could be pushed up as soon as the RBA’s first monetary policy board meeting in February.
Following the last monetary policy decision in December, RBA governor Michele Bullock flagged that the central bank was looking at potential rate hikes in 2026 but stressed that this would be dependent on releases of new data.
What they said: "Having a monthly CPI means we can more clearly see temporary events such as Black Friday sales and compare them across time. In November 2024 and 2025, several goods categories had price falls including clothing, footwear and furniture," ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquadt said.
"As the price falls this year were similar to last year, the Black Friday sales were not a major contributor to the change in annual CPI inflation from October to November."
The sources: ABS media release, ABS
