Angus Taylor’s camp confident ahead of Liberal leadership showdown
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More news: Angus Taylor’s camp is increasingly confident he will depose Liberal leader Sussan Ley, despite her backers insisting the result of Friday’s spill will be tight.
Some of Ley’s backers have told Capital Brief that Dan Tehan, Jonathan Duniam and Michaelia Cash were in the Taylor camp at May’s leadership ballot, meaning the only substantive shift is moderate James McGrath’s defection. James Paterson, who also resigned on Thursday, has publicly stated he voted for Taylor in May.
But there is a growing sense in Ley's camp that the numbers are shifting away from her.
And multiple Taylor backers stress that McGrath’s public decision to shift allegiances is proof that the numbers have shifted significantly against Ley since May, when she edged Taylor 29-25.
Two Liberals who voted in that ballot have since left the partyroom, including Senator Hollie Hughes publicly declared support for Ley after a factional fallout with Taylor.
Gisele Kapterian, the Liberal candidate for Bradfield, was considered the likely winner of the Sydney seat and also voted, before the AEC concluded she had lost a tight race to independent Nicolette Boele.
While Kapterian did not confirm who she voted for, multiple Liberals assume she plumped for Ley.
That means that Taylor would only need to shift two votes from current MPs to make the race a dead heat and his camp is confident they have exceeded that.
The proof will be in the pudding tomorrow morning, when Capital Brief will be live again to provide more updates.
In the interim, here are the key takeaways from a busy day in parliament on Thursday:
- Angus Taylor confirmed he will challenge Sussan Ley for the Liberal leadership
- A spill motion will be called at 9am Friday, where both the leadership and deputy leadership will be in the mix
- Ley suffered a mass resignation from the frontbench, with conservative powerbrokers and a key moderate abandoning ship
- Dan Tehan and Jane Hume are in the race for deputy, but face challengers
- Conservative senator James Paterson warned the party faces a ‘change or die moment’
Dan Tehan resigns from frontbench, will run for deputy leader
More news: Former cabinet minister Dan Tehan has become the eighth frontbencher to resign from the Liberal frontbench, announcing he will run for deputy leader.
In a brief statement, Tehan provided few reasons for his resignation as the party’s energy spokesman but confirmed he was in the running to replace deputy Ted O’Brien.
Tehan listed four broad priorities if he was successful: immediate unification, holding Labor to account, developing a policy manifesto and making the Coalition “match fit” to win elections.
Senator Jane Hume, who Ley banished to the backbench after the May election result, has also been canvassing support from colleagues for the deputy leader. Hume is an ally of Taylor despite coming from the moderate wing of the party.
Other potential candidates are second-term MP Zoe McKenzie and industrial relations spokesman Tim Wilson. Several sources have voiced concern about the optics of removing the party’s first female leader, arguing a female deputy leader alongside Taylor might help assuage that concern.
What they said: “This is not a decision I have taken lightly,” Tehan said.
Key moderate deserts Ley, Cash resigns in major blow to incumbent
More news: Moderate Liberal senator James McGrath has deserted Sussan Ley and senior senator Michaelia Cash has resigned, in a major blow to her hopes of clinging onto power.
In a statement, McGrath confirmed he would vote for a spill motion to elect Angus Taylor in Friday’s meeting.
McGrath personally thanked Ley for the chance to serve in her shadow cabinet, but said her successor must “take the fight” to Anthony Albanese, who he described as “Australia’s worst prime minister”.
“I have made this decision as I believe it is in the best interest of Queensland, Australia and the Liberal National Party,” he said.
Cash, a senior conservative, also visited Ley's office to confirm she was resigning as the Liberals’ foreign affairs spokeswoman.
McGrath’s defection is significant because he is the first of Ley’s former backers to confirm they had defected.
Combined with the resignation of Jonathon Duniam, who had advocated for Andrew Hastie, the recent resignations show support for the spill from factions that did not initially preference Taylor.
What they said: “While I realise this news won’t please everyone, it is important that Australia has a strong and effective Opposition,” McGrath said.
James Paterson warns of ‘change or die’ moment for Liberal Party
More news: Liberal senator James Paterson has warned his party faces a “change or die moment”, hours after tendering his resignation from the frontbench.
Paterson, the most senior Liberal to quit the frontbench in the past 24 hours, said the party was bleeding more than 7000 votes per day, a situation he said “cannot go on”.
“Sussan is a decent person. She is a good liberal. She has been dealt many tough hands in the last nine months,” Paterson said.
“But I no longer had confidence in her ability to turn this ship around.”
Paterson confirmed his support for Angus Taylor, a man he described as the “the smartest policy brain in the shadow cabinet” and a “man of deep conviction”.
Paterson took aim at sniping from Liberal colleagues over recent months, saying although he voted for Taylor in the May leadership ballot, he had worked hard to make Ley’s tenure a success.
The former frontbencher stressed the situation was “not solely” Ley’s fault, and said all MPs needed to take their share of the blame.
He also conceded that changing the leadership risked sinking the party’s poll numbers even further.
What they said: “We're not entitled to anyone's support. We're not entitled to anyone's vote. The Liberal Party is not entitled to continue to exist as a centre-right force in this country,” Paterson said.
Liberal leadership showdown locked in for Friday
More news: Embattled Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s fate will be sealed on Friday morning, when MPs sit for a partyroom meeting to determine the party’s leadership.
Challenger Angus Taylor’s camp had been pushing for a leadership spill on Thursday evening, but Ley has called a meeting at 9am on Friday.
Some senators preferred Friday due to Senate estimates being held on Thursday, with one Liberal source suggesting an extra day also gave them more time to consider their position.
James Paterson and Jonathan Duniam resign, Ley's camp insists numbers are tight
More news: The mass exodus of Liberal frontbenchers is continuing, with conservative powerbrokers James Paterson and Jonathon Duniam resigning from the shadow cabinet.
The senators were present at a meeting between potential leadership rivals Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie, before Hastie quickly announced he would not contest the leadership.
Duniam's resignation in particular is significant, given he was pushing for Hastie and was not guaranteed to back Taylor. His decision to leave the shadow cabinet indicates that Hastie's supporters may be swinging behind Taylor.
Dunian and Paterson resigned in unison on Thursday morning, ramping up the pressure on embattled leader Sussan Ley, who is facing calls to hold an emergency partyroom meeting where she will be challenged by Taylor.
Ley is currently talking to the Liberal whips about the timing of any meeting.
A Liberal source said Taylor’s camp was pushing for a meeting on Thursday evening, though many senators preferred it to be held on Friday — after Senate estimates had concluded.
Ley backers have argued that Taylor’s delay in resigning, and his initial reluctance to declare a direct challenge on Wednesday evening, show a lack of confidence in his push.
Nine months after she narrowly beat Taylor to the leadership, her camp insists the numbers in any spill this week will be tight.
One Liberal source argued that even a narrow victory for Taylor would be an indictment, given it would only represent a small number of votes shifting despite months of undermining Ley’s leadership.
Angus Taylor confirms leadership run, says Liberal Party has ‘lost its way’
More news: Angus Taylor has confirmed he will challenge Sussan Ley for the Liberal leadership, claiming the party has “lost its way”.
Taylor resigned from the frontbench on Wednesday evening, though stopped short of directly declaring his intention to oust Ley.
But after a series of additional frontbench resignations on Thursday morning, Taylor released a video statement confirming he is running for the Liberal leadership.
Like Wednesday’s press conference, Taylor offered thematic criticisms of Ley but did not provide specific policy changes he would advocate.
“We must start by holding this failing Labor government to account,” he said on X.
Both camps insist they have the numbers in any spill, and Taylor has been calling colleagues as he seeks to establish a potential frontbench.
What they said: “Our country is in trouble. The Labor government has failed and the Liberal Party has lost its way,” Taylor said.
“I’m running to be the leader of the Liberal Party because I believe that Australia is worth fighting for.”
More Liberals follow Taylor to the backbench, Hume running for deputy
The news: Embattled Liberal leader Sussan Ley has been hit with another three frontbench resignations, as her backbench MPs openly demand a vote to replace her with Angus Taylor.
The context: The Liberals’ conservative flank has moved to escalate Ley’s leadership crisis on Thursday, with Claire Chandler, Phil Thompson and Matt O’Sullivan following Taylor in moving to the backbench.
Taylor resigned as the party’s defence spokesman on Wednesday evening, but stopped short of explicitly declaring his intention to challenge.
Regardless, his backers have attempted to blast Ley with a series of resignations and public declarations of support.
Liberal backbencher Jess Collins and Thompson have also requested a special party room meeting, where Taylor is almost certain to put his hand up for the leadership. The timing of any potential meeting is uncertain, with Taylor's camp pushing for Friday.
Collins confirmed Ley’s backers were pushing for the leader to remain until at least May’s budget reply, but argued she had been given enough time to prove her leadership, despite being in the job for only nine months.
“I don't think delivering a budget in reply, it's going to save us in this crisis. We are in a crisis,” she told reporters outside parliament on Thursday.
“Now is the time to find resolution to the question of leadership.”
Collins spoke just moments after Chandler, the Coalition cyber security and science spokeswoman, confirmed she had joined Taylor on the backbench.
“I know that the Liberal party is capable of so much better than this,” Chandler said in a social media post.
“But in recent days I’ve come to the view that that’s not going to happen under the current leadership and that’s why today I’ve resigned from the frontbench.”
Conservative Senator Sarah Henderson declared her support for Taylor, and backed her Senate backbench colleague Jane Hume to run as his deputy. Ley demoted Hume and Henderson, both shadow ministers in the last term of government, after May’s election wipeout.
“I think [Hume] is a magnificent woman. She is very experienced,” Henderson said.
“She has been a great advocate for our party and for our country … There are lots of rumours going around. I am hoping that Jane will decide to step up and run as deputy leader. I think that is a great combination.”
Hume, a moderate, is canvassing colleagues for support to run as deputy leader, with a Liberal source saying she intended to do so regardless of who is elected leader.
Meanwhile, moderate Liberal Senator Andrew Bragg described the leadership push as “premature” and said Ley had been handed a “very tough” set of circumstances.
“She’s a tough person and I think she ought to be given more time in the role,” Bragg said.
What they said: “We have been in a death spiral and we need to get out of it. Angus Taylor has the ability to do that,” Phil Thompson told reporters after resigning from the frontbench.
The sources: Phil Thompson and Jess Collins press conference, Claire Chandler social media post, Liberal sources, Angus Taylor X post
