One Nation wins Farrer by-election, Coalition vote collapses
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The news: One Nation has won its first lower house seat at an election, routing the Coalition and independent Michelle Milthorpe in the Farrer by-election.
The context: Voters in the regional NSW seat have elected One Nation candidate David Farley, a former agriculture business owner, to replace retired former Liberal leader Sussan Ley.
Farley will become the first person elected to the federal lower house under One Nation’s banner, though former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce defected to the party in December.
Sky News called the by-election for the minor party, which multiple polls suggest is on course to supplant the Coalition as Australia’s second largest, at 7:46pm after Farley made major ground in the seat’s regional areas.
ABC News called the result at 8:02pm.
At the time of publication, Farley had won 42.2% of the primary vote compared to Milthorpe’s 25.9%, though those results were skewed towards regional areas where One Nation was expected to perform particularly well.
Milthorpe, who shaved 10% of Ley’s margin at the last federal election, began the campaign as the bookies’ favourite.
A preference deal between the Coalition and One Nation also helped to tip the scale towards Hanson’s party.
Joyce and One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson were both present at Farley’s election night party in Albury.
Farrer has never been out of Coalition hands since its creation in 1949 and was held by Ley for more than two decades.
But months of internal dysfunction since the devastating 2025 election defeat, including multiple Coalition breakups, saw the two parties’ vote collapse.
At the time of publication, Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski was sitting on 10.7% of the primary vote, just ahead of Nationals candidate Brad Roberston on 9.8%.
Exclusive DemosAU/Capital Brief polling suggested Hanson led Ley as preferred prime minister in January, while April’s survey showed One Nation closing in on Labor’s primary vote having supplanted the Coalition.
Saturday’s result means the Liberal Party has now lost four of the seats held by its five most recent former leaders.
What they said: “Don’t underestimate us … We’ve been out there dragging and kicking and screaming against many issues, but we will do more,” One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson told Sky News.
The sources: Sky News, ABC News
