Investigators probe Islamic State links after Bondi shooting

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

---

1.

ISIS trail: Police say early indications point to the Bondi Beach attack being inspired by Islamic State ideology, as investigators focus on the shooters’ overseas travel, firearms licensing and the next legal steps after the surviving shooter woke from a coma. Federal Police Commissioner Krissy Barrett said “early indications point to a terrorist attack inspired by Islamic State”. Authorities said the alleged gunmen, Sajid Akram, 50, and his son Naveed Akram, 24, travelled to the Philippines in November, and that the purpose of their trip remained under investigation, adding it was not conclusive whether they were linked to a terrorist group or received training there. The ABC reported, citing security sources, the pair underwent “military-style training” during the trip. The Sydney Morning Herald reported police are investigating a manifesto prepared by the Akrams. The younger suspect has now woken from a coma and is expected to be charged. Investigators also clarified the father legally owned six firearms under a licence issued in 2023, not 2015 as authorities previously reported, and confirmed two Islamic State flags and improvised explosive devices were found in the shooters’ car. Indian police said Sajid Akram’s family in Hyderabad had no knowledge of his radicalisation and there was no adverse record against him before he migrated to Australia in 1998. Meanwhile, tributes flowed for civilians who tried to stop the attack, including Boris and Sofia Gurman who were killed after confronting and attempting to disarm the older gunman, Sydney shopkeeper Ahmed al Ahmed who then tackled and wrestled a rifle from him and remains in hospital with gunshot wounds, and a refugee known as “AB” who kicked the rifle away from the son after the younger gunman was wounded. Elsewhere, John Howard said he supports tightening gun laws but said the focus on firearms risked diverting attention from failures to confront antisemitism. (ABC)(SMH)(Capital Brief)(Reuters)

2.

Candid talk: In a series of candid, on-the-record interviews with Vanity Fair conducted over the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles offered blunt assessments of Trump, senior members of his administration and several major policy decisions, prompting a swift response from the White House. Wiles said Trump “has an alcoholic’s personality” and described a “loose agreement” with him to limit what she called “score settling” against political enemies, while acknowledging prosecutions of New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI director James Comey amounted to retribution. She described Vice President JD Vance as a “conspiracy theorist” whose shift to supporting Trump was “sort of political,” and called budget director Russ Vought a “right-wing absolute zealot,” Vanity Fair reported. Wiles also said Elon Musk was an “avowed” ketamine user and said she was “initially aghast” at his dismantling of the US Agency for International Development. She said Attorney General Pam Bondi “completely whiffed” handling the Epstein files. After publication, Wiles wrote on X the profile was a “disingenuously framed hit piece,” while White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement the administration was united behind her. Meanwhile, Trump posted he will give a prime-time nationwide address at 9pm Washington time tomorrow (Thursday 1pm AEDT). (Vanity Fair p1)(Vanity Fair p2)(NYT)

3.

Sink or float: US iron ore miner Ivanhoe Atlantic has officially shelved plans for a circa $300 million listing on the ASX until mid-2026, as it fights back against explosive claims from a US congressman over its alleged links to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Once billed as one among the biggest ASX floats of the year, Ivanhoe had plans to raise up to $300 million in the IPO, but a spokesperson for the company told Capital Brief that plans for the float have been paused until at least Q2 2026 while it focuses on starting construction at its flagship Kon Kweni project in Guinea. Ivanhoe Atlantic came under fire in Washington last week, with US congressman John Moolenaar warning about the company’s “concerning ties” to the CCP. Ivanhoe Atlantic said it has secured preliminary IPO approval from the ASX but would not confirm a timeline for the float. (Capital Brief)

4.

Delicate disclosure: Biotech venture capital firm Brandon Capital informed staff that one of its co-managing directors and co-founders, Chris Nave, is in a relationship with a senior investment employee who will now depart the firm. The disclosure, which followed enquiries from Capital Brief, comes as corporate Australia increases its focus on governance, power dynamics and transparency around relationships between senior executives and staff. In a statement to Capital Brief, co-managing director Stephen Thompson said the situation had been handled appropriately, with the relationship disclosed to senior leadership some time ago and communicated internally to staff this week. He said the employee, Jess Smith, did not report to Nave and instead reported directly to him. Smith has advised Brandon Capital that she will leave the firm at the end of the year, a decision Thompson said was personal. A person familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity given the personal nature of the situation, confirmed it was Smith’s decision to leave. (Capital Brief)

5.

Noisy data: Wall Street’s main indexes were slipping as investors parsed a barrage of economic data, with losses in healthcare and energy stocks compounding uncertainty over the Fed’s policy outlook. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all were trading lower in the afternoon, with all 11 S&P sectors lower, led by energy as crude prices slid to around USD55 a barrel. Healthcare stocks dropped, with Pfizer shares down 4.7% after the company forecast a challenging 2026 due to weaker sales of COVID-19 products and squeezed margins. Official data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after a 105,000 decline in October, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%. The figures were distorted by the 43-day government shutdown, prompting the Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust its methodology and warn of higher-than-usual standard errors. Treasury yields edged lower and traders remained cautious on near-term rate cuts, with markets continuing to price two Fed cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported Databricks is raising a Series L funding round of more than USD4 billion that would value the data-analytics and AI software company at USD134 billion. And Bloomberg reported Apollo is exploring a potential sale of Atlas Air Worldwide and is in early-stage talks that could value the aviation business at more than USD12 billion including debt. (Capital Brief)(Bloomberg)(WSJ)(Reuters)

6.

Co-lending climbs: Metrics Credit Partners is preparing to increase its co-lending deals with big banks in 2026 as more and bigger commercial real estate development projects are approved to help fill the housing gap. Metrics’ latest report on the 2026 outlook for the sector says major banks are actively competing to secure loans to commercial real estate developers — an area the banks historically pulled back from following stricter capital rules after the GFC. Some banks have been forming direct partnerships with superannuation funds to navigate capital requirements. Speaking to Capital Brief, Metrics group chief executive and managing partner Andrew Lockhart said the government’s additional housing supply targets, increasing immigration, low levels of unemployment and low vacancy rates have put pressure on a number of lenders “to come back into the market”. The report also said competition for the best commercial real estate deals would “likely remain intense in 2026” and activity for second-tier borrowers may be less crowded. (Capital Brief)

7.

Public purse: Treasurer Jim Chalmers heralded a $5.4 billion contraction in the underlying cash balance deficit as part of the 2025 mid-year budget update when compared to the pre-election fiscal outlook. The October 2025 monthly financial statement indicated a $6 billion budget improvement compared to the pre-election fiscal outlook. The 2025-26 mid-year economic and financial outlook (MYEFO) will flag a budget deficit of $36.8 billion for FY26, which is $5.4 billion better than was projected in March 2025. This is driven by $20 billion in savings, net policy decisions that have generated a $2.2 billion improvement to the bottom line, keeping annual real spending growth at 1.7% and saving most of the revenue upgrades. Over the four years to 2028-29, the underlying cash balance is forecast to be $8.4 billion better compared to the 2025 pre-election fiscal outlook. Economists were expecting the budget bottom line to improve for 2025-26, with estimates for the deficit ranging from $30 billion to $39 billion. (Capital Brief)

8.

Cyber exposed: Australian financial authorities and intelligence agencies issued new warnings about growing cyber risks to the payments system, citing the threat of external shocks at a time of significant geopolitical upheaval. RBA assistant governor Brad Jones told the Australian Payment Network Summit the Council of Financial Regulators is increasingly concerned the national payments system could be taken offline. He said the RBA and APRA are working with banks, Australian Payments Plus and AusPayNet to improve contingency measures so payments can continue, even in reduced form, if a major institution is disrupted. The RBA also backed keeping the bulk electronic clearance system (BECS) running beyond 2030, citing outages in newer systems as an unacceptable systemic risk. Jones pointed to cyber threats and increasing reliance on a small number of third-party tech providers, referencing the AWS and Crowdstrike outages. NAB’s Brad Carr said the banking system had not yet been tested by a nationwide outage. Officials said that recent cyber-attack simulations led by Home Affairs and the RBA revealed confusion around roles during an incident. Jones said physical cash remains a critical contingency in a digital system. (Capital Brief)