Minor threat
It would be easy to write off One Nation’s continuing surge in today’s Capital Brief/DemosAU poll as a protest spike. But Pauline Hanson has turned votes into seats before.
It’s increasingly hard to describe Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as just a protest vote. Today’s Capital Brief/DemosAU survey has it within a point of Labor on primary support, after months of eating into the vote of both major parties.
The political world was shocked back in January when the Capital Brief/DemosAU poll was the first to identify how One Nation was catching up to — and later overtaking — the Coalition. At the time, the opposition was on the ropes, riven by internal bickering and the collapse of the coalition agreement.
The federal election is not due for more than two years. Still, the major parties would be mistaken to assume frustrated voters are merely telling pollsters they will vote One Nation — with no intention of actually backing it at the ballot box in 2028.
One Nation’s polling performance can translate into votes on election day. It has happened before.
