No one knows
With peace talks on ice and Donald Trump announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil has surged back above USD100. Once again, the only certainty is uncertainty.
If you are struggling to get your head around the latest twist in the seemingly endless series of turns that have defined 2026 so far, you’re far from alone.
“There is still time to resurrect talks between America and Iran,” UK news magazine The Economist proclaimed. “But there is also a chance the war is about to get worse.” In other words, anything could happen, and no one really knows where this is heading.
To recap, historic peace talks between the US, led by Vice-President JD Vance, and Iran in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend after Iran refused to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Then, as we reported in our Standup newsletter this morning, US President Donald Trump responded by ordering a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil supply flows and which Iran has controlled since the war erupted.
