Nvidia earnings to make or break AI hype

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Nvidia watch: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher, lifted by tech stocks as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings, seen as a make-or-break moment for this year’s AI-driven rally. Nvidia shares were 2% higher in afternoon trading, with options traders positioning for a 7–8% swing in either direction after the result (expected around 8:20am AEDT). Analysts expect third-quarter revenue to rise 56% to USD54.9 billion ($84.9 billion), with USD30.7 billion in net income and earnings per share of USD1.26, according to The Wall Street Journal. Alphabet was up 3% a day after launching its Gemini 3 AI model and following the Berkshire Hathaway weekend disclosure that it bought 17.8 million shares last quarter. The stock is approaching record highs and could soon overtake Microsoft in market value for the first time in seven years. The Dow was slightly lower, pulled lower by UnitedHealth and Boeing. Bitcoin fell to below USD90,000 at USD88.977. That puts it 4.7% lower year-to-date. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed won’t publish a standalone October jobs report due to the government shutdown. (Reuters)(WSJ)

2.

Data build: Brookfield Asset Management launched a USD10 billion ($15.5 billion) AI infrastructure fund, backed by Nvidia and the Kuwait Investment Authority, to anchor a broader global program to acquire up to USD100 billion in AI infrastructure assets. The Brookfield Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund (BAIIF), which launched Wednesday, has already secured USD5 billion in capital commitments from institutional and industry partners including Brookfield, Nvidia and KIA, according to a statement. The fund will target assets such as energy, land, data centres, compute capacity and dedicated behind-the-meter power. Brookfield estimates USD7 trillion will be needed over the next decade to build the infrastructure required to support AI. Seed investments include a USD5 billion framework agreement with Bloom Energy to deploy up to 1 gigawatt of power solutions at data centres and AI factories. Earlier in the year, the asset manager committed EUR20 billion to AI projects in France and up to SEK95 billion for an AI data centre in Sweden. (Brookfield) (Reuters)

3.

Booted off: Meta began notifying under 16-year-old Australian account holders that they will lose access to Instagram, Threads and Facebook as the country’s social media age restrictions come into force. The company said that it will begin to purge existing accounts and block new under-16 users from 4 December and expects to complete the process by 10 December, when new Australian legislation preventing teens aged 13-15 from having accounts kicks in. Meta also cautioned that there remained a “significant” margin of error when determining whether a user is 16 years or older, and expects to misidentify an unspecified number of underage users. Over-16s mistakenly flagged will be able to verify their age using video selfie or government ID, via Meta’s partner Yoti. The tech giant encouraged young users to download and save their social media data and update contact details so that Meta can contact them when they turn 16. (Bloomberg)(The Guardian)(AFR)(ABC)(Capital Brief)

4.

AI sands: Elon Musk’s xAI will partner with Nvidia and Saudi Arabia’s state-backed AI firm Humain to build a 500-megawatt data centre in the kingdom, Musk announced at the US-Saudi Investment Forum in Washington. He said the facility would use Nvidia chips and become xAI’s largest outside the United States. The partnership is part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s push to make Saudi Arabia a global centre for artificial intelligence and reduce reliance on oil. The New York Times reported the deal had been delayed by uncertainty over US approval of advanced chip exports. Approval is now expected, The Wall Street Journal reported citing unnamed sources. A day earlier, the White House announced a new AI memorandum of understanding with Saudi Arabia, which it said gives it access to US systems while protecting American technology. Humain, launched in May with backing from the kingdom’s USD1 trillion ($1.55 billion) sovereign wealth fund, with the goal to handle 6% of global AI workloads. (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Bloomberg)

5.

Crypto splash: Crypto exchange Kraken confidentially submitted paperwork for an IPO in the US, the company said in a statement. The crypto exchange operator, which does business as Payward Inc, has not disclosed details such as the number of shares, price range or expected valuation. Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Kraken is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and is targeting a listing as early as the first quarter of 2026. The filing comes shortly after Kraken said it was valued at USD20 billion ($31 billion) in its latest capital raise, up 33% in less than two months. The raise included participation from Jane Street and Citadel Securities. Based in Cheyenne, Wyoming and founded in 2011, Kraken offers trading in digital assets and has expanded into traditional assets including equities and exchange-traded funds. The move positions Kraken among a group of crypto companies pursuing US listings before the 2026 midterm elections, amid a more favourable regulatory environment. But it also comes amid a sharp selloff in Bitcoin and broader underperformance across digital assets, with recently listed rivals Circle, Bullish and Gemini trading 12%, 7% and 7.1% lower respectively in afternoon trading. (Kraken)(Reuters)(Bloomberg)

6.

Mayne decision: The Takeovers Panel ordered Cosette Pharmaceuticals to agree to “any conditions reasonably required” by Treasurer Jim Chalmers with respect to Mayne Pharmaceuticals’ South Australian factory, “including conditions reasonably restraining its closure”. The Panel said that a threat made by Cosette to sell or close the factory if they were forced to follow through with the acquisition of Mayne “is contrary to an efficient, competitive and informed market". The US-based private equity-backed suitor has been trying to get out of the deal for months, but its attempts to terminate the deal were blocked by the NSW Supreme Court, which Cosette warned it intends to appeal. The decision provides hope to Mayne shareholders that the Treasurer may have a stronger position to back the completion of the sale, given the requirement for Cosette to accept conditions that restrain it from closing the SA factory. The FIRB is due to release its decision on the takeover on Thursday. The Treasurer's office has previously disputed whether it could keep the facility open through conditional approval. (ASX)(Capital Brief)

7.

Serious Gaming: Indian gaming giant Zupee earlier this month struck a deal to acquire Nilushanan Kulasingham's AI startup Nucanon. The deal is highly significant — a rare Indian-Australian M&A transaction, the first in the gaming sector, and one of only a handful of AI-related exits for the local ecosystem. Yet while it was widely covered in the Indian business press, in Australia it was largely overlooked. Founded in 2023, Nucanon built a suite of AI tools that allow stories to adapt to every choice a user makes, and maintain storyline nodes to keep consistency in narrative. Acutely aware of the challenges it would face raising in Australia, the company was quick to look offshore for investment. Zupee paid $5 million upfront to acquire the business and will invest a further $15 million for growth, a source told Capital Brief, and Nucanon will be entitled to substantial further payments if earn-outs are achieved. (Capital Brief)

8.

Cybersecurity fatigue: Paul Twomey, the former National Office for the Information Economy CEO, told Capital Brief that Australia's growing wealth means the country is ranking higher on criminals’ target list than people realise. He said the government has played its part by giving prominence to agencies such as the Australian Signals Directorate, the Australian Cyber Security Centre and by passing the Cyber Security Act in 2024. But he argues the “broad responsibility for the defence of the nation” actually rests with corporations, given that almost all network infrastructure is in private hands. Worryingly, Twomey said that a wider cybersecurity “fatigue around the world” is setting in, partly because data stolen from a company is not necessarily used against that same company. The sentiment is shared by ASIO director-general Mike Burgess who recently told the corporate regulator’s annual conference that company boards needed to be “curious and discerning about the information provided to them.” (Capital Brief)