The Reserve Bank’s board members know that the Albanese government will seize on any rate cut as an opportunity to tell a success story in the fight against inflation.
They also know that a decision to cut could increase the chances of the prime minister calling an earlier election to ride the positive wave of sentiment that often follows a rate reduction. And it’s very well canvassed that economists and markets are aligned in forecasting a cut and telling the public there is a strong case for rate relief.
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Yet there’s huge uncertainty, with Donald Trump’s new tariff regime in its infancy and inflation not yet in the target band on an underlying basis.
These are all reasons enough for this week's RBA meeting to be especially intense. But within Canberra, there’s also another looming issue that will not be resolved with today’s rate decision: the bank’s independence.