Trump says no deal with Iran until ‘unconditional surrender’

Good morning. Here’s what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Unconditional surrender: US President Donald Trump said there would be “no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender”, ruling out negotiations with the Kingdom over the offensive launched by US and Israel seven days ago. Trump added via Truth Social that after “the selection of a great and acceptable leader(s)…[the US] will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction”, signalling that the White House is preparing for an extended conflict. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran could elect a new supreme leader in the next one or two days. Earlier on Friday, the Israeli military said it had moved to the second phase of its campaign, which saw it launch a new wave of attacks on regime infrastructure in Tehran and hit southern suburbs of Beirut with further airstrikes. Trump’s demand for surrender came as the UN secretary general António Guterres called for diplomatic talks and an end to the fighting while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said some countries have begun mediation efforts. Meanwhile, sources told The Washington Post that Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack US forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major US adversary is participating — even indirectly — in the war. (Capital Brief)(WSJ)(FT)(Washington Post)(Al Jazeera)

2.

Nightmare fuel: The Trump administration announced a USD20 billion ($28.48 billion) reinsurance program for oil tankers on Friday in efforts to get ships transiting the paralysed Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came as the price of US oil notched its biggest weekly jump on record as the war in the Middle East fuelled concerns over supply and inflation. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled 12.2% higher at USD90.90 per barrel, its highest close since September 2023, gaining as much as 14.3% in intraday trading and climbing 35.6% for the week. Global oil benchmark Brent crude leapt by the most in four years, settling 8.5% higher at USD92.69 per barrel. Kuwait began cutting its oil production as it is running out of storage space, with sources telling the Wall Street Journal that major storage facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE also are filling up fast, with both countries expected to hit their limits in under three weeks. Earlier this week Iraq slashed output by more than 50%, as supply disruptions including direct hits on regional energy facilities and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have put global oil supply in a chokehold. Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that war in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world”, warning that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within days and drive oil to USD150 a barrel. (FT)(WSJ)(CNBC)(Bloomberg)

3.

Stem the bleeding: Shares in BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, fell over 7% on Friday after the firm limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private-credit funds following a spike in client requests for redemptions. The USD26 billion ($37 billion) HPS Corporate Lending Fund, or Hlend, said in a statement Friday that shareholders have requested 9.3% of their shares in the first quarter of 2026, but management has capped the repurchases at 5%. Bloomberg calculates that the total value of shares would have been around USD1.2 billion, but investors will get back about USD620 million that the fund held at the end of last year. The move will be scrutinised by the industry as outflows climb across semi-liquid private credit funds. Earlier this week, BlackRock rival Blackstone said it had received record withdrawal requests from its USD82 billion ‘Bcred’ fund, and would fulfill all of them, representing 7.9% of shares. On Wednesday, Macquarie Group chief executive Shemara Wikramanayake attributed the recent private credit damage to Blackstone, Blue Owl and others, to shifting sentiment, captured by warnings from former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Citrini Research. (BlackRock)(WSJ)(FT)(Bloomberg)

4.

Down week: US stocks declined on Friday as oil prices surged and traders reacted to a surprise fall in new jobs data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 453 points, or 0.95%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down 1.3% and 1.6% respectively. Shares in Amazon and Google closed down 2.7% and 0.9% respectively after the two tech giants said they will continue offering Anthropic’s AI technology for clients, excluding for defence work, despite the US Defense Department’s official designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk on Thursday. Alternative asset managers joined BlackRock among the worst performing US stocks on Friday as private credit jitters continued to spread, with shares in KKR closing down 4.5%, while Blue Owl and Ares Management declined over 5%. Equities were impacted by unexpected labour data, which saw nonfarm payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate climb to 4.4%. Commerce Department data also saw sales at retailers decline in January, extending a run of meek spending since late last year. (CNBC)(WSJ)

5.

Evasive action: The Australian Defence Force (ADF) was forced to take evasive actions after a Chinese military helicopter made an “unsafe and unprofessional” manoeuvre. In a statement published Friday, the Australian government said it has lodged complaints with the Chinese government after a Seahawk helicopter which launched from the HMAS Toowoomba was approached by a Chinese military helicopter over the Yellow Sea on 4 March. “The helicopter matched the ADF helicopter’s altitude before closing in to an unsafe distance,” it said. “The helicopter moved slightly ahead, increased speed and then rolled towards the ADF helicopter, which required evasive action to maintain safe flight.” HMAS Toowoomba was sailing through the international waters to take part in efforts to enforce UN sanctions on North Korea. While no injuries or damage was sustained, the ADF called the move “unsafe and unprofessional”. The interaction is the latest in a string of incidents which have seen Chinese military deploy flares and release chaff near Australian aircraft. (ADF)(ABC)(SMH)

6.

Still safe: RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser cast doubt on the notion that the US dollar’s reputation as a ‘safe haven’ asset is greatly diminished, noting there is “little sign” of a persistent decline in security, it remains liquid and even appreciated in the wake of the Iran war. Speaking at the Chicago Booth 2026 US Monetary Policy Forum in New York, Hauser said that while the cost of insuring against a US default “picked up” around Liberation Day in April 2025 and during the US government shutdown, “sovereign CDS spreads, though an imperfect proxy, have since fallen back to their longer term average”. He also noted that US foreign exchange and treasuries “remain by far the most liquid of the ‘traditional’ safe haven markets”, even if a deterioration in its ability to command a “liquidity premium” has deteriorated, on some measures. One “important change”, however, has been that the predominant pick-up in portfolio capital inflows into the US over the past year reflects equity purchases rather than debt. (Capital Brief)

7.

Sharp shed: The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, casting doubt over the strength of the labour market. The decrease eroded most of the gains posted in January, when the economy added 126,000 new jobs. Data released by the Bureau of Labor statistics on Friday also saw the unemployment rate climb to 4.4% in February following a decline the month prior. The fall was led by a drop in healthcare employment as a result of strike activity, while cuts in technology and federal government continued. Friday’s report also saw downward revisions to the total number of jobs added to the US economy in 2025 to 181,000, the worst year for hiring outside of a recession since 2003. The figures may refocus the attention of the Federal Reserve on the jobs market, as policymakers have been closely attuned to inflation, even before the US-Israeli war on Iran raised concerns about price pressures with investors. (BoLS)(Bloomberg)(FT)

8.

Idle cash: Airwallex launched its treasury product, Yield, in the US as its global assets under management hits USD1 billion ($1.42 billion) for the product. Airwallex’s Yield launched in Australia in November 2023 and is also available in Europe, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand. The product allows businesses that have idle capital to invest into a JP Morgan Asset Management money market fund. The USD6.2 billion Australian payments startup has been under scrutiny since late 2025 when venture capitalist Keith Rabois accused the company of operating a Chinese backdoor for accessing sensitive US financial data. At the time, Capital Brief also previously reported that the Singapore-headquartered unicorn was unable to quarantine access to existing customer data from China. While Airwallex has denied the allegations, earlier this year AUSTRAC appointed an external auditor to investigate whether the company was complying with its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing (AML/CTF) obligations. (Capital Brief)