Trump to send tariff letters to trading partners by 9 July

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Marathon bill: The US Senate began debating President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” after a marathon 16-hour reading of the 940-page tax and domestic policy package. The bill extends 2017 tax cuts, slashes Medicaid and health spending, phases out renewable energy subsidies, adds new wind and solar taxes, and boosts military and border funding. The CBO projects it would add at least USD3.3 trillion to the deficit in ten years and leave 11.8 million more Americans uninsured by 2034. The bill advanced 51-49, with two Republicans opposing. Senator Thom Tillis, who opposed the Medicaid cuts, said he will not seek re-election after Trump threatened to back a primary challenger. Elon Musk called the bill “political suicide.” Meanwhile, Trump told Fox News he would send a letter to every country outlining a tariff for access to the US market, tying the move to his 9 July deadline for trade negotiations. Earlier on Friday, Trump suspended trade talks with Canada over its digital services tax and threatened further tariffs for the country. Trump also said he would reveal the buyer identities of TikTok in about two weeks. (NYT)(Capital Brief)(WSJ)(Fox News)

2.

Bloomberg bots: Global business news and information behemoth Bloomberg is encouraging journalists to use generative artificial intelligence platforms such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT for story research and publishing. Bloomberg News editor-in-chief John Micklethwait earlier this year encouraged staff to use third-party chatbots including OpenAI’s ChatGPT in their daily work, according to people with knowledge of the directive who were not authorised to speak publicly about it. The approach marks a significant shift from the news publisher’s earlier use of AI for story summaries and other product-led initiatives to using it in the production of its journalism, which is highly trusted by traders and has the power to move global markets. AI is now being used by Bloomberg journalists and editors for research, to workshop headlines, summarise documents and translate copy, among other tasks. Bloomberg declined to comment. (Capital Brief)

3.

Decacorn central: It is a startup ecosystem cliché that Australia punches above its weight in technology. New research not only backs up the oft-repeated claim that Australia is a world leader in producing ultra-valuable tech companies, but also highlights the urgent need for more early-stage capital to build on that strength. A fresh report by AWS and Side Stage Ventures analysing global Dealroom data, found Australia creates more unicorn startups per venture dollar invested than any other country in the world. The report identified 26 early-stage funds that have completed more than five deals in the last 12 months. The region of Scandinavia, whose three countries have a combined population smaller than Australia's, has nearly double the amount of VCs supplying seed backing. Counting 29 locally bred champions, researchers found Australia produces 1.22 unicorns for every $1 billion of VC cash invested. (Capital Brief)

4.

Fallout flare: The US obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, The Washington Post reported citing four unnamed sources. The paper said the Trump administration had not disputed the existence of the intercepted communication but, through White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, had “strenuously disagreed with the Iranians’ conclusions and cast doubt on their ability to assess the damage.” Earlier in the weekend, Trump said he would “absolutely” consider bombing Iran again if it resumed enriching uranium to a concerning level. Meanwhile, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told CBS News in an interview broadcast Sunday that there was agreement that “a very serious level of damage” had been done to Iran’s nuclear program, but “some is still standing.” (Reuters)(WaPo)

5.

Commodities cuts: Australia's mining and energy export earnings are expected to continue sliding over the next two years due to elevated risks of trade barriers, falling bulk commodity prices and a weak global economy, according to a government report to be released on Monday. Total resource and energy export earnings fell about 7% to an estimated $385 billion in the 12 months through June, down from $415 billion in 2023-24, the Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in the report seen by Bloomberg. Iron ore remains the biggest income generator for the country at 30%, but while shipments will increase, the report says that declining grades and falling prices mean earnings for the commodity will slip below $100 billion in 2026-27 for the first time this decade. LNG exports are forecast to slip, while earnings from gold are set to jump 22% to $56 billion in the financial year ending Monday. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Capital Brief)

6.

Cashing out: Nvidia insiders sold over USD1 billion ($1.53 billion) worth of shares in the past 12 months, with an uptick in recent trading as investor interest around artificial intelligence surges, the FT reports. Over USD500 million in share sales took place in June, as Nvidia’s share prices reached new record highs. Last week, Nvidia overtook Microsoft to once again become the world’s most valuable company and is on track to achieve a USD4 trillion market capitalisation. Nvidia took a hit from US-China trade tensions which threatened demand for its products, but have now rebounded over 60% from their low on 4 April. An SEC filing shows that Jensen Huang, Nvidia's chief executive, started selling shares this week for the first time since September. The FT reports that a platform which tracks insider sales based on regulatory filings, VerityData, found that Nvidia’s share price increase over USD150 appears to have triggered Huang’s sales. (FT)(Capital Brief)(Reuters)(CNBC)

7.

Muted movement: Hong Kong’s League of Social Democrats, the city’s last active pro-democracy group still staging street protests, announced on Sunday it will disband due to “immense political pressure” from years of national security crackdowns. Chair Chan Po-ying said the party was left with no choice given the safety risks and the “near-total imprisonment” of its leadership. The party cited the erosion of civil society and the suppression of dissent since China imposed a national security law in 2020 and Article 23 in 2024. While authorities argue the security laws are needed for stability, pro-democracy activism in Hong Kong has sharply declined, with dozens of groups and media outlets shutting down and the Democratic Party disbanding earlier this year. In a statement, the LSD said the “road has narrowed beyond passage,” warning that the path ahead is “even more treacherous.” (Capital Brief)(AP)(Reuters)

8.

Ukraine-Russia war: Russia launched its largest attack on Ukraine since the beginning of its invasion, Kyiv reported on Sunday. The Ukrainian air force said via Telegram that Russia fired a record 537 aerial weapons overnight. The barrage included 477 explosive drones and 60 missiles, with Ukrainian defences intercepting 211 drones and 38 missiles. Russia has intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, despite resuming direct negotiations with Ukraine last month. Authorities reported civilian deaths in Kherson and Kharkiv, as well as widespread damage to residential buildings. An F-16 fighter jet pilot was also killed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for more support from allies. “We count on leadership, political will, and the support of the United States, Europe, and all our partners.” Meanwhile, the Kremlin expanded its state secrecy law, further tightening control as the conflict drags on. (FT)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)(Capital Brief)