US election polls heat up, Iowa swings to Harris

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Election edge: Fresh polls just days before the US presidential election showed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were neck and neck in key battleground states, with a surprise tilt towards Harris in the staunchly conservative state of Iowa. According to the final set of polls by New York Times and Siena College released on Sunday, Harris was slightly ahead in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while Trump held an advantage in Arizona and had closed the gap in Pennsylvania. Des Moines Register poll conducted by one of the nation’s most reliable pollsters, Ann Selzer, showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa, a state he won easily in 2020. While the margin of error is ±3.4 points and an alternative poll by Emerson College Polling on Saturday contradicted that result, the surprise outcome, bolstered by support from older white women, offered hope to Democrats. (Capital Brief)(NYT)WSJ(FT)(Reuters)

2.

Presidential bets: Betting markets 48 hours ahead of the Tuesday presidential election tilted toward Vice President Kamala Harris as recent polls show a tightening presidential race. PredictIt, which had forecast a Trump win since 9 October, now gives Harris a 54% chance of victory, versus Trump’s 52% chance. Polymarket and Kalshi showed Trump’s lead narrowing by 13 to 14 points to 54% and 51% respectively. The move followed polls hinting at a dead heat election and a Des Moines poll showing Harris ahead in Iowa, a Republican-leaning state that Trump secured in 2016. Over USD2 billion was wagered on the presidential election outcome on Polymarket last month alone, according to media reports. The price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also fell. Meanwhile, a “whale” trader who is estimated to hold approximately 25% of the Electoral College win contracts for Trump on Polymarket, told the WSJ he has “absolutely no political agenda.”(Forbes)(Business Insider)(Fortune)(Newsweek)

3.

Buffett’s trades: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued its stock-selling spree, cutting its Apple holding by 25% to USD69.9 billion ($105.2 billion) in Q3, according to a regulatory filing. Buffett has progressively divested from Apple in the past year, cutting the stake by almost two-thirds since its peak in 2023. A broader USD36.1 billion offloading of stocks in 3Q that included Bank of America shares pushed cash reserves to a record USD325.2 billion. The group has realised USD97 billion in gains from selling USD133 billion worth of stocks this year. “It’s still the greatest trade of all time by the greatest investor of all time,” Christopher Rossbach, CIOF of longtime Berkshire shareholder J Stern & Co said. “The investment in Apple has defined his last decade and the fact that he is selling Apple now for valuation reasons is testament to his sticking to his principles at a scale that no one has before.” (Capital Brief)(Berkshire Hathaway)(FT)

4.

Election kick-off?: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made a set of education and health policy announcements for a re-elected Labor government, seen as the launch of an early 2025 federal election campaign targeting young voters. At a rally in Adelaide under the slogan “Building Australia’s Future” Albanese promised 100,000 annual fee-free TAFE places starting in 2027. That followed weekend pledges to raise HELP loan repayment thresholds and cut about $16 billion from outstanding student debts if re-elected, according to media reports. In his speech, Albanese listed lowering inflation to under 3%, creating over a million jobs, budget surpluses and narrowing the gender pay gap as part of the economic record of his government. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton criticised Albanese’s plans as an attempt to “spend its way back into power.” (Capital Brief)(SMH)(The Guardian)(ABC)

5.

Oil trim: OPEC+ postponed its planned December output increase by a month amid weakening demand and strong supply from non-OPEC countries, keeping the current curbs to help stabilize prices. The delay, the second time the production hike has been pushed back, comes in response to faltering demand, particularly from China and high output levels in the Americas. Brent crude has fallen to around USD73 per barrel with projections suggesting potential further drops amid economic uncertainties, according to Bloomberg numbers. “Market conditions won out,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of oil research at Onyx Commodities Ltd. “OPEC+ showed it couldn’t ignore the current macroeconomic economic realities centered on China and Europe, which point to weaker oil demand growth.” The group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will review its policies at a meeting scheduled for 1 December, 2024. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)

6.

Stalled jobs: The US labour market almost stalled in October, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, the smallest gain since December 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Manufacturing jobs declined by 46,000 due to aerospace strikes at Boeing and Textron, while hurricanes also disrupted job data collection. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% however, as the labour force participation rate decreased. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will likely proceed with a 25 basis point interest rate cut at their meeting this week. (Capital Brief)(US Bureau of Labor Statistics) (Reuters)

7.

Chip switch: Nvidia will replace Intel on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, marking Intel's exit after 25 years due to its declining influence in chipmaking. The shift also reflects Nvidia's ascendancy, particularly in generative AI, which has propelled its stock price. Intel has been the Dow's worst performer this year, with its shares dropping 54%, and is projected to report its first annual net loss since 1986. Meanwhile, Nvidia's valuation has surged to USD3.32 trillion. Sherwin-Williams will also join the Dow, replacing Dow Inc, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday. (Reuters)

8.

VW cuts: Volkswagen's planned cost-cutting initiative is essential to address "decades of structural problems," CEO Oliver Blume said in an interview with Sunday newspaper Bild am Sonntag. Weak demand in Europe and reduced earnings from China were also reasons for the essential cost-cutting program, he said. Volkswagen’s works council last week said the carmaker plans to shut at least three factories in Germany, lay off thousands, and reduce operations in Europe to remain competitive. VW has not officially confirmed those plans, but last Wednesday asked workers to accept a 10% pay reduction so that Europe's largest carmaker can preserve jobs and stay competitive. “Our costs in Germany must be massively reduced," Blume told the paper. (Reuters)