US stocks dive as recession fears surge

Good morning. Here's what happened overnight and what you need to know today.

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1.

Trumpcession fears: Recession fears in the world’s largest economy are mounting as consumer pessimism deepens. A top White House adviser acknowledged the economy may contract in Q1 but predicted growth would accelerate with tax cuts. Trump declined to rule out a recession this year a day earlier. US stocks are sliding as traders start to factor in rising recession risks across North America this year amid tariff uncertainty. The Nasdaq 100 fell almost 5% intraday, extending its 2025 decline to over 10%, with Tesla falling over 15%.The S&P 500 dropped over 3%. A New York Fed survey found 27.4% of households expect their finances to worsen, the highest in 15 months, while a Reuters poll found 70 of 74 economists see rising recession risks. "Given this is so uncertain and there are new announcements every hour, it's unclear what the environment will look like. It's hard to deny the risk of a recession has intensified," said Jonathan Millar, senior US economist at Barclays. (Capital Brief)(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)(Bloomberg)(Reuters)

2.

Consolidated consulting: KPMG bosses want to overhaul their operating model by merging dozens of national partnerships, according to sources cited by the Financial Times. Under the plan, the number of “economic units” across KPMG’s network would consolidate to 32 by 2026, from over 100 two years ago. KPMG is comprised of a network of locally-owned partnerships, as the structure serves to reflect local auditing rules and protect partners from liability or scandals in other jurisdictions. However, the firm is concerned that smaller units will be unable to fund increasingly essential tech investments alongside the compliance demands required for audit quality. Executives said that member firms unable to meet a USD300 million ($475 million) threshold will be considered too small to remain a full member of the network. Should any mergers go ahead, the profit pools for partners would be split, at least in part, across the countries involved. (FT)(Capital Brief)

3.

Birthday party: Washington and Beijing have begun early discussions about possible meetings between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with dates floated for April in China and June in the US, according to sources cited by the South China Morning Post and Wall Street Journal. The June meeting has been informally referred to as a “birthday summit,” as both leaders were born in mid-June. The talks come as trade tensions escalate, with Trump raising tariffs on Chinese imports to about 35% on average, according to the WSJ numbers. Beijing responded with 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat and corn, and 10% tariffs on soybeans, pork and beef, while also blocking business for 25 US companies. China’s tariffs, announced last week, took effect today. China has sent delegations to Washington to explore potential deals. Despite public tensions, both leaders have expressed interest in a meeting. No agreement has been reached, and discussions remain in early stages. (SCMP)(WSJ)(NYT)(CNBC)

4.

X-plosive attack: X suffered multiple outages on Monday, with owner Elon Musk claiming the platform was hit by a “massive cyberattack.” He said the attack was carried out “with a lot of resources” and suggested that “either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved.” A source in the internet infrastructure industry told Reuters that X was targeted by several waves of denial of service (DoS) attacks beginning at 9:45 UTC (8:45pm AEDT). downdetector recorded 11,745 outage reports, which later rose to around 26,579 and peaked at 40,000. The platform first went down in the early hours of the Los Angeles morning for about 45 minutes, then suffered two more outages at around 6:30 am PT and 8:00 am PT. X has not issued an official statement on the outages. (Elon Musk post)(Reuters)

5.

Bank buyout: Swiss private bank J Safra Sarasin Group has agreed to acquire a 70% stake in Denmark’s Saxo Bank, valuing it at €1.6 billion ($2.74 billion) with an implied purchase price of €1.1 billion. The deal includes Finnish Mandatum’s 19.8% stake and Chinese group Geely’s 49.9% stake. Saxo Bank’s founder and CEO, Kim Fournais, will remain in his role with a 28% stake. Safra Sarasin plans to integrate Saxo’s technology platform, citing its expertise in digital investments and trading as complementary to its wealth and asset management services. The acquisition will also diversify Safra Sarasin’s client base, as the banks serve different segments. Safra Sarasin manages around USD247 billion in client assets, while Saxo Bank oversees USD118 billion. (J Safra Sarasin) (Bloomberg) (Capital Brief)

6.

New(s) sheriff in town: ABC managing director Hugh Marks has signalled change in his first address to staff, pledging to prioritise content and make the broadcaster the first choice for audiences nationwide. In an email seen by Capital Brief, Marks acknowledged uncertainty ahead. “I know change can be exhausting. Unfortunately, I can't promise there won't be change. There likely will be,” he wrote. Appointed in December, he stressed the need to experiment with new formats and meet Australians on the platforms they use. Marks takes over amid turbulence, as the ABC has spent the past year defending itself against an unlawful termination case brought by former employee Antoinette Lattouf. (Capital Brief)

7.

Tanker spill: A US-flagged oil tanker, Stena Immaculate, was struck by the Portuguese-flagged container ship Solong off England’s northeastern coast on Monday, triggering explosions and forcing both crews to abandon ship. The Stena Immaculate, anchored near Hull, sustained a ruptured cargo tank, spilling jet fuel into the sea. The Solong was also carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide, a toxic chemical used in metal plating and dye production, but it is unclear if any leaked or burned. One person was hospitalised and emergency teams, including helicopters, lifeboats and firefighting vessels, responded. Local officials said 32 people were treated by ambulances. The Stena Immaculate, operated by Crowley, was on a short-term charter to the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command. Authorities are assessing environmental risks, including threats to protected seabird colonies. Maritime security sources reported no signs of malicious activity. Foggy conditions were noted at the time. (Reuters)(NYT)(BBC)

8.

Golden ticket: The Federal Court has cleared Northern Star’s $5 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining, removing one of the final hurdles for the takeover. Announced in December, the deal will see Northern Star acquire 100% of De Grey at an implied offer price of $2.08 per share. Northern Star shareholders will hold 80.1% of the combined group, with De Grey shareholders owning 19.9%. The court has ordered a shareholder meeting on 16 April at 2pm (AWST) to vote on the scheme of arrangement, which De Grey’s board has unanimously recommended. Northern Star will acquire De Grey's Hemi project in WA, one of the world's largest undeveloped gold projects in a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction. (Capital Brief)