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A key piece of the rate cut puzzle is about to be released

The RBA shocked the markets and economists last week when it held rates steady. But governor Michele Bullock gave a clear steer about what she needs to see to cut.

RBA governor Michele Bullock defended the decision to sit tight on rates on the basis o AAP Image/Steve Markham.

After delivering a shock on-hold rates call, Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock pointed to two pieces of data that could give the board the confidence to cut. One of those will be released in a matter of days.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

New numbers

The data: Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, May 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics

When: Tuesday 15 July 2025

The data: Building activity, March 205, Australian Bureau of Statistics

When: Wednesday 16 July 2025

The data: Labour force, June 2025

When: Thursday 17 July 2025

What to expect: Economists were surprised by the softness in last month’s data, with a small decline in employment of 2500 and a stable 4.1% unemployment rate. That followed an 87,600 gain in jobs in April and the May data defied expectations for about 20,000 jobs to be added to the workforce.