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A ‘line ball’: Economists warn markets are over-confident about a May rate rise

As geopolitical uncertainty continues to ramp up, economic growth and inflation is increasingly difficult to predict.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock and her monetary policy board will face balancing inflation risks with a slowing economy. AAP Image/Reuters/Hollie Adams.

The markets are aggressively pricing in an interest rate rise for May. But economists are far less certain about the path ahead.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

Growth v inflation: The RBA’s challenge

The US and Iran are looking to cut a deal, but uncertainty flared again over this weekend, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz as the US blockade of its ports continued.

It’s a challenging time for monetary policy decisionmakers, including the Reserve Bank’s board which meets again in about a fortnight.