Jobs data in focus as the RBA bunkers down for Trump tariff storm
The jobs market has continued to surprise economists and official forecasters over the past few years. Will this week's data shock them again?
Following a volatile week for the markets and the economy, investors are bracing for what comes next from the Trump administration. But there's critical data domestically ahead of the long weekend that may will play into any calculations from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Building activity, December 2024, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 16 April 2025
The data: Labour force, March 2025, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Thursday 17 April 2025
What to expect: The labour force will be the most important data release of the week and one watched closely by economists and the central bank. The jobs market has continued to surprise with its resilience, prompting many revised forecasts, but the February labour force data surprised economists to the downside with a shock contraction of 53,000 workers but also an 11,000 decline in unemployment and a big fall in the participation rate.
Westpac economist Ryan Wells expects that result, the worst outside of the pandemic, was driven by “noise” because it’s a volatile figure especially around the start of the year. He can’t see any technical issues in the dataset but his analysis shows that fewer older individuals returned to the labour market over the month than usual, but this pattern was repeated in other demographics too.
