New inflation and retail data to hold clues for RBA's next moves
After those hoping for a rate cut in 2024 were left sorely disappointed, a range of key economic data out this week will be watched closely for hints on the RBA's moves in 2025.
The year is just getting under way, but this week will see the release of a swathe of critical data releases that will be examined by economists ahead of the first Reserve Bank rate meeting of the year in February.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data this week.
New numbers
The data: Building approvals, November 2024, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Tuesday 7 January 2025
The data: Monthly Consumer Price Index indicator, November 2024
When: Wednesday 8 January 2025
What to expect: These figures bounce about a lot on a monthly basis, so as always it's worth reading through them with caution. However, they will still make up the most up-to-date official inflation data available until the more crucial and comprehensive quarterly figures are released at the end of the month.
Commonwealth Bank economists are expecting to see headline inflation lift to 2.6% on an annual basis in the November figures, as electricity rebates start to unwind, which is higher than the consensus of about 2.3% expected by market economists. This will be a feature of the data until July, unless there’s a policy change. That’s 0.5 percentage points above October’s annual pace. CBA analysts think the trimmed mean measure will ease down to 3.4% annually, from 3.5% the month prior. The trimmed mean inflation is, on their estimates, likely to “undershoot relative to the RBA’s forecasts” — which would give the central bank more confidence that inflation is easing.
