‘Not materialised’: Worst inflation fears from US-Iran war on ice but CPI still too hot
The federal government’s fuel excise extension will see some economists rejigging their expectations for inflation as critical CPI and unemployment data lands.
As the federal government rolls out a fuel excise cut extension, economists will be weighing up the path ahead for inflation, the labour market and the Reserve Bank’s next round of interest rate decisions.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Consumer price index, May 2026, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 24 June 2026
What to expect: Over the year to May, Commonwealth Bank economists are tipping headline inflation to drop to 4.1%, from 4.2% in the year to April, largely driven by a drop in fuel prices. However, the trimmed mean measure is expected to edge upwards to 3.5% with risks to the upside.
“Our expectation that cost pass-through in April would remain limited proved broadly correct. While we expect some increase in pass-through during May, the available data suggest that the more severe inflation scenarios considered in the immediate aftermath of the Middle East conflict have so far not materialised,” CBA senior economist Trent Saunders said in a note.
