RBA interest rate decision preview: Money markets and economists now predict a 25bp hike
The Reserve Bank board will meet this week. Will it sit on its hands amid turbulence in the Middle East or act on data that looks too hot?
Several major central banks across the world are meeting this week to decide on interest rates. Among them is the Reserve Bank but while most are expecting a rate rise, several top forecasters are warning there’s no certainty this is how the RBA will act amid major global upheaval.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
Rate decision
The event: Reserve Bank of Australia March board meeting and rate decision
When: Tuesday 17 March 2026, policy decision released at 2:30pm AEDT followed by 3:30pm AEDT press conference with RBA governor Michele Bullock
What to expect: All the economic teams at the big four banks now expect the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates by 25 basis points, to 4.1%, on Tuesday. ANZ was the last to switch its prediction on Thursday, with many citing strong domestic data alongside rising pressures from the Middle East.
