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Forward Guidance

The RBA is expected to stay on hold, a US-Iran deal could be imminent. Is the rate hiking cycle over?

A growing group of economists think the next RBA move will be down. But there is significant uncertainty as US President Donald Trump indicates a deal is close with Iran.

Jennifer Duke
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Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock will be expected to speak about the shifting geopolitical environment. AAP Image/Dean Lewins.

The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board will meet this week to determine its next interest rate decision. Economists have rapidly changed their expectations for 2026 and 2027.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

US-Iran deal

The news: Following a turbulent week in the markets, which ended with a significant recovery as investors eyed a potential US-Iran deal, US President Donald Trump signalled a deal would be signed soon.

US President Donald Trump said he expects a deal to be signed with the next 24 hours. Source: AAP Image/AP/Jacquelyn Martin.
US President Donald Trump said he expects a deal to be signed with the next 24 hours. Source: AAP Image/AP/Jacquelyn Martin.

Writing on social media on Sunday morning (AEST), Trump said the agreement would be a “wall to nuclear weapon” and indicated it would be signed shortly.