The RBA is likely to hike rates in May but war-driven inflation yet to peak
Economists think the Reserve Bank will increase rates in May following surging fuel prices. But as the Middle East conflict drags on, the worst of the inflation effects may be yet to come.
The final data this week ahead of the May rate decision will make-or-break economists’ predictions for the cash rate. Regardless, top forecasters are warning that the inflation impacts from the Middle East conflict are yet to appear in the data.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
New numbers
The data: Consumer price index, March 2026, Australian Bureau of Statistics
When: Wednesday 29 April 2026
What to expect: With only a week until the Reserve Bank board makes its next interest rate decision, economists are focused on what this week’s consumer price index reveals about price pressures, particularly as the March data captures the start of the US-Iran conflict.
The market is expecting to see year-on-year growth in headline CPI for March at 4.8% and the trimmed mean at 3.4%. On a quarterly basis, the market is expected to see headline growth up 1.4% and the trimmed mean up 0.9%, or about 3.5% over the year.
