The RBA is likely to lift rates this week. The jury is out on what’s next
Economists are warning that slowing growth driven by the Middle East conflict could start to outweigh inflation concerns.
The Reserve Bank will meet this week, just seven days before the federal government hands down its 2026 budget. There’s overwhelming consensus that the board will increase rates on Tuesday but there’s far less agreement about what happens next.
Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.
Interest rate decision
The event: Reserve Bank interest rate decision, statement on monetary policy and media conference
When: Tuesday 5 May 2026
What to expect: Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is widely expected to be delivering a 25 basis point rate rise this week to 4.35%, with the markets having fully priced in about 19 basis points. But economists are warning that it could be a close call and any increases beyond May are uncertain.
