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Forward Guidance

Trump tariff negotiations to dominate as RBA rate cut countdown begins

There's only a week to go until the RBA meets for its May rate decision, but the focus is still on the United States.

Jennifer Duke
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The RBA has been watching the US administration's tariffs closely. But it has been careful not to overreact. Shutterstock.

With only a week to go until the Reserve Bank of Australia meets for its next interest rate decision — widely expected to be a cut — each piece of new information will be looked at carefully.

Here’s what you need to know about the key economic data releases this week.

Trade negotiations

The news: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer met in Geneva with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng for trade tariff talks over the weekend. There were widespread hopes that US President Donald Trump’s newly increased tariffs, to 145% on China, and China’s retaliatory 125% on US imports could be toned down.

Before the talks, Trump wrote on Truth Social that 80% “seems right” but that it was “up to” Bessent.