Taiwan tremors
China has expressed displeasure over Taiwan's presidential vote and reiterated its view that 'reunification' is inevitable. That doesn't mean near-term military conflict is now more likely.
In a resounding snub of Beijing, Taiwanese voters have elected Lai Ching-te as the island’s next president, returning his mainland-sceptic Democratic Progressive Party to an unprecedented third consecutive term in power.
The result over the weekend, in itself, was no major surprise. Lai was the frontrunner in the polls, and his two rivals were always likely to take votes off each other after failing to form a coalition in what transpired as a three-cornered race.
But it's still a remarkable show of voter support for political continuity in Taiwan, when the status quo is already a febrile high-wire act. And while Lai is not the impetuous radical hellbent on independence that China has portrayed, Beijing’s public disdain for him only heralds a further intensification of its long-running campaign of diplomatic isolation and military intimidation.
There are caveats to the extent of Lai’s popular support. In Taiwan’s first past the post system, Lai won with just 40% of the popular vote and the DPP lost its majority in the legislative assembly, where the smaller Taiwan People’s Party, which advocates for a less confrontational approach to cross-strait relations, will hold the balance of power. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office seized on the DPP’s vote share to declare the election outcome showed it “does not represent mainstream opinion on the island”.
